★★★ 미 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 회의 결과 (테이퍼링 실시)

<미국 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 기준금리>
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현지시간 18일 미 연준(Fed)은 이틀간의 공개시장위원회(FOMC) 직후 성명서를 통해 현재 매달 850억달러씩 투입하고 있는 자산매입 규모를 100억달러 줄여 750억달러로 낮춘다고 밝혔다.

다만 실업률이 6.5%를 웃돌고 향후 1~2년간 기대 인플레이션이 2.5%를 넘어서지 않는 한 기준금리를 현 수준에서 동결하겠다는 기존 포워드 가이던스(Forward Guidance)를 종전대로 유지했다.

한편, 연준은 올해 미국의 국내총생산(GDP) 성장률 전망치를 상향 조정하고 실업률 전망치도 더 낙관적으로 제시했다. 연준 실무진은 올 GDP 성장률 전망치를 종전 9월의 2.0~2.3%에서 2.2~2.3%로 상향 조정하고 내년 전망치는 2.9~3.1%에서 2.8~3.2%로 범위만 조정했다. 2015년 전망치는 종전 3.0~3.5%보다 소폭 낮아진 3.0~3.4%로 제시했다.

실업률 전망치는 올해 7.1~7.3%에서 7.0~7.1%로 더 개선될 것으로 전망했고 내년 전망치도 6.4~6.8%에서 6.3~6.6%로 낮췄다. 2015년 전망치 역시 5.9~6.2%에서 5.8~6.1%로 낮췄다.

FOMC 정책위원들의 개별 금리 전망에 따르면 지난 10월과 같은 12명의 위원들이 2015년에 첫 금리 인상이 있을 것으로 전망했한 반면 3명은 2016년에 인상을 예상했다. 2016년에 인상을 전망한 위원은 종전 2명에서 1명 더 늘었다. 반면 내년 인상을 점친 위원은 종전 3명에서 2명으로 줄었다.

또한 위원들이 제시한 2016년말 적정 기준금리 평균은 1.75%로, 종전의 2.0%보다 0.25%포인트 낮췄다.

<성명서 전문>

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates

that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint may be diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will radually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its

current asset purchase program, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in January, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee’s sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at

the rate most consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial

developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency

mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee’s outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the

Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial

developments. The Committee now anticipates, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William

C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Jerome H.

Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Eric S. Rosengren, who believes that, with the unemployment rate still elevated and the inflation rate well below the federal funds rate target, changes in the purchase program are premature until incoming data more clearly indicate that economic growth is likely to be sustained above its potential rate.