★★★ 미 FOMC 통화정책 회의 결과 발표 (금리 동결)

<미 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 연방금리>

미국 연방준비제도(Fed)는 이틀간의 통화정책 회의를 통해 월간 채권 매입 규모를 100억달러 더 줄이기로 했다. 전문가들의 예상대로 다섯 번째 테이퍼링을 단행한 것이다.

연준은 올해 경제성장률 전망치를 지난 3월에 제시한 2.8~3%에서 2.1~2.3%로 내렸다. 기준금리를 제로수준(0~0.25%)으로 유지하는 초저금리 기조는 상당기간 유지하기로 했다.

연준은 17일부터 이틀간 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 통화정책회의를 열고 현재 월 450억달러인 양적완화 규모를 350억달러로 축소하기로 만장일치로 결정했다고 로이터가 18일 보도했다. 이에 따라 연준은 주택담보부증권(MBS) 매입 규모를 기존 200억달러에서 150억달러, 국채 매입규모를 기존 250억달러에서 200억달러로 줄일 예정이다.

연준이 양적완화를 추가 축소한 것은 미국 경제가 나아지고 있다고 판단했기 때문이다. 연준은 성명서에서 경제 성장세가 최근 몇 달 동안 반등했다며 노동 시장이 점진적으로 개선되고 있고, 가계 소비 증가세도 지속되고 있으며, 기업 투자도 다시 시작됐다고 했다.

하지만 연준은 올해 경제성장률 전망치를 낮췄다. 겨울 한파 영향으로 1분기 경제성장률 수정치가 마이너스 1%를 기록했기 때문이다. 2015년과 2016년 경제성장률 전망치는 각각 3~3.2%, 2.5~3%를 유지했다.

연준은 또 올해 예상 실업률을 지난 3월 전망치 6.1~6.3%에서 6.0~6.1%로 하향 조정했다. 물가상승률 전망치는 1.5~1.6%에서 1.5~1.7%로 소폭 수정했다.

연준은 성명서에서 초저금리 기조를 상당기간 이어가기로 했다. 연준 위원들은 기준금리 인상 시기를 내년으로 전망했다. 다만 기준금리 인상 속도는 당초 예상보다 빨라질 것이라고 봤다.

16명의 연준 위원들은 내년 말 기준금리가 1.25%, 2016년 말에는 2.5%를 기록할 것이라고 예상했다. 당초 전망치는 각각 1%. 2.25%였다.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent months. Labor market indicators generally showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, though lower, remains elevated. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment resumed its advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in July, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $15 billion per month rather than $20 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $20 billion per month rather than $25 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee’s sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee’s outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Loretta J. Mester; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo.