★★★ 미국 FOMC 회의 결과 발표 (금리 동결)

<미국 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 기준금리>

현지시간 30일 미 연방준비제도(Fed)가 예상대로 또 한 차례의 테이퍼링을 단행했다. 지난해 12월 이후 여섯번째다. 연준은 인플레이션과 고용, 경제 등에 대해 이전보다 낙관적으로 평가했으나 기준금리 인상에 대한 포워드 가이던스는 그대로 유지했다.

연준은 이날 이틀간의 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 회의를 마치고 성명을 통해 다음 달부터 국채와 모기지담보증권(MBS) 매입 규모를 250억달러로 추가 100억달러 축소한다고 발표했다. 제로(0~0.25%) 수준의 초저금리도 자산매입 프로그램 종료 이후 상당기간(for a considerable time) 유지하기로 했다.

연준은 성명에서 고용시장이 개선되고 있으며 실업률은 하락하고 있고, 인플레이션은 2% 목표치에 근접하고 있다는 데 주목하며 경제활동이 지난 2분기 반등했다고 평가했다. 다만 광범위한 지표들은 아직 고용시장이 ‘상당한’ 부진을 겪고 있음을 나타낸다고 덧붙였다.

추가 테이퍼링 결정으로 연준이 오는 10월 자산매입 프로그램을 종료시킬 가능성은 더 높아졌다. 연준은 지난해 12월 자산매입 규모를 처음으로 월 850억달러에서 100억달러 축소했으며 이후 5회 연속 월 100억달러 추가 축소를 발표했다. 자산매입 프로그램이 종료되면 시장의 관심은 결국 연준의 첫 기준금리 인상 시기와 방법이 될 수밖에 없다.

연준은 이날 성명에서 인플레이션이 목표에 다소 가까워지고 있다면서 계속해서 목표치를 밑돌 가능성은 감소하고 있다고 분석했다.

한편 이날 회의에서는 추가 테이퍼링과 초저금리 유지 결정에 찰스 플로서 필라델피아 연방준비은행 총재가 반대표를 던져 눈길을 끌었다. 플로서 총재는 자산매입 프로그램 종료 이후 상당기간 현재의 연방기금(FF) 금리 범위를 유지할 것이란 가이던스가 시기 의존적이며 상당한 경제적 진전을 반영하지 못하다고 지적했다.

“Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that growth in economic activity rebounded in the second quarter. Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further. However, a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has moved somewhat closer to the Committee’s longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced and judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in August, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $15 billion per month rather than $20 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee’s sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee’s outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against was Charles I. Plosser who objected to the guidance indicating that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for “a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends,” because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee’s goals.”